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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.